However, in the heavily paramilitarised jail that is now Kashmir, they must await (relative) “normalisation” before being able to protest. Many will be keener than ever to obtain azadi, a vague term that means freedom, independence, or, increasingly, a desire to be rid of India. Meanwhile, Kashmiris remain bitter and surly. In Ladakh, some Muslims in Kargil have concerns about Buddhist domination. In Indian Jammu and Kashmir, some Jammuites are unhappy with Jammu remaining coupled with Kashmir, whose Muslim population has long dominated local politics. Similarly, states with non-BJP governments may now be wary lest the President should similarly seek to impose his will in their state. Shah’s decisiveness against India’s only Muslim-majority state possibly unnerved minority communities (Christians, Sikhs, Muslims) anxious about the BJP’s Hindutva (“Hinduness”) agenda. Some Indians also (mistakenly) think many Kashmiris are pro-Pakistan. (This abrogation is now making people in Jammu and Kashmir nervous that externals will buy up their land.) Equally, many Indians think that Kashmiris have secured higher social indicators than many other Indian states, such as “backward” Uttar Pradesh or Bihar, by cleverly exploiting special financial disbursements made by New Delhi. Many Indians distrust or dislike Muslim Kashmiris, partly because the now-abrogated Article 35-A discriminately allowed “state subjects” only (i.e., locals) to buy land in Jammu and Kashmir. Shah’s actions were well received in mainland India. Many will be keener than ever to obtain “azadi”, a vague term that means freedom, independence, or, increasingly, a desire to be rid of India. Equally hard-line elements in India want this treaty abrogated.Īs India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi, Bharatiya Janata Party chief Amit Shah and their ilk push to regain those areas of divided and disputed Jammu and Kashmir “occupied” by Pakistan or by China and which are “Integral Parts of India”, it can be expected water will become a more volatile issue and a “lever” that India may seek to utilise. Although the Indus Waters Treaty exists, hardline elements in Pakistan have accused India of “water terrorism”. Water is an incredibly sensitive issue between both nations, particularly for downstream Pakistan. Most interestingly and little noticed, Islamabad complained on 19 August that India had instigated “ fifth-generation warfare” by enabling excess water from the Sutlej River to flow into Pakistan without informing the latter. Otherwise, there will be little action until Kashmiris are allowed out to protest. In September, the Kashmir issue will be raised, with vitriol, at the United Nations General Assembly. In the short term, we may see more terrorist incidents in Kashmir. There have been no newspapers available electronically. Communications to, and in, the Kashmir Valley have been severed. Since 4 August, Indian forces have effectively incarcerated the region, with people kept indoors and more than 1600 “ social activists” detained. It is impossible to know what is actually happening in Kashmir.
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